Mathematical propensity and roulette are connected; in fact the game is based purely on mathematics. But does it have an impact for us gamblers?
We’ve all heard of gamblers fallacy but many people are unaware of what it actually means. Essentially it assumes that an unnatural short-term (relative) balance must occur during roulette. Sadly for many roulette enthusiasts this is simply not a genuine mathematical formula.
This ‘law of averages’ axiom is often confused by roulette players. The principle is muddled with the legitimate mathematical theory that during large trials, the results obtained should broadly match the anticipated value. In other words, if you conduct a trial in roulette by spinning the wheel 15,000 times, you should witness an even sample of numbers making an appearance.
This mathematical law guarantees (on a fair roulette wheel) that a number of events will be recorded. For example, if the wheel is spun 15,000 times is conceivable that the number 3 will make no appearance? Mathematical propensity indicates it should.
The Law of Averages & Mathematical Propensity in Roulette
If gamblers fallacy (or in more mathematical terms the law of averages) does not evoke an event to happen on the roulette wheel, then does mathematical propensity have an impact?
The short answer is yes!
While the law of averages assumes that a ‘black number hasn’t appeared in 9 spins, therefore the next spin must black’, the law of large numbers has a very different perspective. But before we delve into it, let’s evaluate gamblers fallacy in a little more depth.
We can all recall (and might have indulged) in the practice of witnessing a long sequence of either red or black numbers being rolled-in. Let’s assume red. A quick glance at the stack of chips being piled onto black before the next spin indicates the main bulk of players believe the following spin is likely to induce a black number. Obviously this is incorrect. In fact, if the sequence is particularly long it could indicate a form of wheel bias.
The law of averages and the law of large numbers should not be confused. The former is not based on mathematical principle as illustrated above, while the latter is.
The law of large numbers describes the outcome of undertaking the same observation repeatedly. In relation to roulette, it is the amount of times the wheel is spun and the results analysed. An adequate sample trial must be achieved for any meaningful analytical evaluation to occur. In other words, to gain the expected value, a thorough trial should be conducted. As the trial secures more verified results the expected value will become closer.
I hope you’re enjoying my article. If you are why not also read: Roulette Strategy: Can I Really Win?
Mathematically Speaking is Roulette Unbeatable?
This is the question every gambler has repressed; otherwise why would he play roulette? Sadly most gamblers do not understand or indeed want to understand the logistics of mathematical propensity in roulette.
If enough random results are obtained from the wheel and the expected value relates to the trial findings, this is actually bad news for the gambler because it indicates the roulette wheel is fair.
You see, the law of large numbers will guarantee the randomness of long-term results. Thus the roulette enthusiast is playing a wheel that is truly random and can expect a fair sample of numbers to be spun-in. This balanced outcome will NOT help the player win.
When Mathematical Propensity Does Not Work in Roulette
Have you ever heard of Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo Segovia? In the early 1990’s Gonzalo organised members of his family to act as a team and determine if Madrid casinos had imperfections on their roulette wheels. They did and consequently Gonzalo and his family generated 70 million pesetas.
After being banned by the casino, the family travelled across the world to exploit such imperfections in other casinos. It is said they won a total of 250 million pesetas; a substantial amount money at the time.
But alas, this type of gambling is not for the amateur or even most pros. It requires intensive observation of thousands of spins, as well as patience, discipline and a large bankroll.
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